Why Vladimir Putin's 'Invincible' Missile Claim Comes at a Bad Time

Standing before a fiery video simulation of nuclear warheads raining down on the state of Florida, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Moscow ready to deliver a swift response to American military aggression. He also revealed an arsenal of four new nuclear weapons that are under development and designed to render American defenses “useless.”

The saber-rattling speech to hundreds of top Russian officials and legislators amounts to a direct response to President Trump’s calls to “modernize and rebuild” the U.S. nuclear arsenal in the State of the Union address in January.

The escalatory rhetoric, reminiscent of the Cold War, comes as the two nations currently face off in several volatile hot spots where the risk of miscalculation could result in direct conflict with unforeseeable consequences. U.S. and Russian forces operate in close proximity at several flashpoints in places like Syria and across eastern Europe by flying warplanes, sailing battleships, and training proxy forces on the ground.

“There is an ever increasing opportunity for things to go sideways,” said Philip Breedlove, retired U.S. Air Force general who commanded all NATO forces in Europe until May 2016. “We live in a time now that is much more complicated than the Cold War. There are more risks of friction and potential contact. And yet, all in all, our ability to communicate with the Russians has diminished rather than increased.”

During the Cold War, a series of treaties between the U.S. and Soviet Union were designed to avoid miscalculation and keep communication channels open – even though Washington and Moscow were sworn adversaries. Many of those treaties (The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, Prevention of Incidents On and Over the High Seas, Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities) no longer exist.

Communication between the U.S. and Russia has been further limited since American intelligence agencies uncovered that the Kremlin engaged in a multi-pronged campaign to meddle in 2016 U.S. presidential elections. In addition, Congress passed a provision of the National Defense Authorization Act in late 2014 — and renewed since then — which restricts the Pentagon’s ability to work with Russia. The law was passed in response to Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its continued involvement in the Ukrainian civil war.

Maintaining communications to avoid accidental confrontations between American and Russian forces is critical, so they don’t spiral out of control, said James Stavridis, retired U.S. Navy admiral who also commanded all NATO forces and is now dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He points to mounting tensions over Ukraine, Syria, and cyber intrusion.

“The risk for miscalculation between U.S. and Russian forces is higher than at any time since the height of the Cold War,” he said. “Operationally, the stakes are extraordinarily high anytime two massively armed, nuclear-capable states have combat forces in the same battle space … A mistake that flares into a significant loss of life could easily create the conditions for an escalating exchange of ordnance in any of those regions.”

Perhaps nowhere is the U.S.-Russia breakdown more dangerous than in the chaos in Syria, where the two nations are on opposite sides of the bloody war. American warplanes have carried out thousands of airstrikes against ISIS militants as part of a coalition that has included NATO and Arab states’ aircraft. Russian bombers conduct strikes to support the government of President Bashar Assad. Both nations also have hundreds of troops and military contractors on the ground to support their partners.

While there have been dozens of close-calls and confrontations in the crowded airspace above, the U.S. and Russia converse daily on how to avoid such clashes. The talks, which occur over a phone line and a Google email account, have grown in importance as ISIS has been defeated and the remaining forces converge on the same towns.

Currently, the U.S. operates on the western side of the Euphrates River, which cuts through eastern Syria, while Russia works on the east. There have been issues with the arrangement. On Dec. 13, for example, two U.S. F-22 stealth fighters intercepted and flew alongside two Russian SU-25 attack planes for 40 minutes. The planes nearly collided at one point while zipping above Syria at hundreds of miles per hour.

On Feb. 7, American drones, fighter jets, and aerial gunships obliterated a force of 300 armed men with tanks that fired artillery at a base in the oil-rich Deir Ezzor region held by U.S. and mainly Kurdish forces. When the dust settled, about 100 fighters, including Russian military contractors, were killed. Three days later, a MQ-9 Reaper drone dropped a bomb on an advancing Russian-made T-72 tank from the “same hostile force,” but stopped firing on the forces once they headed back east.

Reports on how many Russians were killed and wounded in the incidents vary widely, but the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta reported that 13 Russians were killed and 15 wounded, citing anonymous sources. The Pentagon has not commented on the make-up of the force that they struck except to say it was “pro-regime.” The Russian government, though, has publicly admitted that Russians died in the incident, but proclaimed they were mercenaries and not under Moscow’s control.

Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, U.S. Air Force commander in the Middle East, told a teleconference with media at the Pentagon that Russia was told about the strike “prior, during and after” the airstrike.

Russia’s use of contractors offers government leadership deniability, but also complicates the picture.

Michael O’Hanlon, a military analyst at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution in Washington, said he doesn’t expect impending war with Russia, but the mounting risks is unacceptable.

“If these various close calls even make the risks of conflict 5%, that’s too high among nuclear-armed superpowers that don’t have any good reason to fight each other,” he said. “I worry that the chances of war are too high given the overall course we’re on and the nature of the relationship today.”

Hope Hicks to Resign as White House Communications Director

(WASHINGTON) — White House communications director Hope Hicks, one of President Donald Trump’s most trusted and longest-serving aides, abruptly announced her resignation Wednesday, leaving a void around a president who values loyalty and affirmation.

The departure of Hicks, who worked as a one-woman communications shop during his campaign, came as a surprise to most in the White House — and cast a pall over the West Wing at a trying time for the president. It leaves Trump increasingly without support of the familiar aides who surrounded him during his campaign, and marks the latest in a string of high-level departures in the administration’s second year.

Hicks, 29, had a seemingly untouchable role in the West Wing, often viewed more as a surrogate daughter than a staffer. Perhaps most importantly, she served as Trump’s glamorous shield and validator, always ready to provide “Mr. Trump” with a smiling dose of positive reinforcement, and controlling reporters’ access. She was the fourth person to occupy the position since the president was sworn in, as the Trump White House has set modern records for staff turnover.

In a statement, Trump praised Hicks for her work over the last three years, saying he “will miss having her by my side.” Hicks informed Trump of her decision Wednesday, a White House official said.

Hicks, who occupied the desk closest to the Oval Office in the West Wing, has been a central participant in or witness to nearly every milestone and controversy of the Trump campaign and White House. She began her White House tenure as director of strategic communications — a title that only partly captured her more expansive role as the president’s gatekeeper to the press.

The news comes a day after Hicks was interviewed for nine hours by the House panel investigating Russia interference in the 2016 election and contact between Trump’s campaign and Russia.

Hicks acknowledged to a House intelligence panel Tuesday that she has occasionally told “white lies” for Trump. But she said she had not lied about anything relevant to the Russia investigation. She has also been interviewed by special counsel Robert Mueller’s team about her role in crafting a statement about Donald Trump Jr.’s 2016 meeting with Russians, as Mueller’s expansive probe of Russian interference in the 2016 election and potential misdeeds committed by those in the president’s orbit moves ever closer to the Oval Office.

Hicks’ departure leaves a vacuum in the White House communications team, and in the president’s collection of trusted aides. The announcement came a day after news broke of the impending departure of deputy communications director Josh Raffel, and just a few days after senior adviser Jared Kushner saw his security clearance downgraded — limiting his access to classified information.

“I can’t imagine anyone here leaving a bigger hole in the White House than Hope on her departure,” said White House lawyer Ty Cobb.

White House officials and outside advisers suggested Hicks’ departure would strengthen chief of staff John Kelly’s control over what has been an oftentimes chaotic West Wing.

In a statement, Kelly said Hicks had become “a trusted adviser and counselor,” but behind the scenes the pair had occasionally clashed over her more informal role. Kelly had begrudgingly supported making Hicks communications director after the short-lived tenure of Anthony Scaramucci, in an effort to integrate her role into the rest of the White House’s communications strategy.

Hicks said in a statement, “There are no words to adequately express my gratitude to President Trump.” She added she wished Trump and his administration the “very best.”

Before Wednesday’s announcement, Hicks had not been happy for some time, according to two people with knowledge of her thinking who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. One person said Hicks had been increasingly feeling the stress of the position, especially in the wake of revelations about her relationship with former Staff Secretary Rob Porter. Since then, Hicks has been hounded by paparazzi, who have at times staked out her apartment building.

Hicks was an improbable campaign press secretary and senior White House official. A former Ralph Lauren fashion model and public relations pro who worked for Trump’s daughter Ivanka, Hicks had no political background when Trump asked her to serve on his campaign.

She was an unconventional press secretary, rarely mixing it up with reporters, almost never giving on-the-record interviews and, despite Trump’s fondness for cable, staying off TV. She spoke at a rally exactly once in December 2016, after Trump beseeched her “to say a couple of words.”

She said nine: “Hi. Merry Christmas everyone, and thank you, Donald Trump.”

Within the White House, she was seen as a stabilizing force on Trump, who at times would grow unhappy when she was not around. As the West Wing was riven by rivalries in the early months of the administration, she allied herself with Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner in opposition, at times, to the nationalist forces led by then-chief strategist Steve Bannon.

Hicks, who has long tried to avoid media attention, was thrust into the spotlight recently when it was revealed she had been dating Porter. He left the administration after accusations that he had abused his two ex-wives became public.

Hicks helped craft the White House’s initial supportive response — an effort some saw as inappropriate.

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters that Hicks would remain at the White House “for several weeks” and denied that Hicks’ decision to leave had anything to do with her lengthy testimony before the House Intelligence Committee.

“Don’t try to read more into it than exists,” Sanders said. “This is something that she’s been thinking about for a while.”

Scientists Just Got Their First Look at Light From the Universe’s First Stars

(WASHINGTON) — After the Big Bang, it was cold and black. And then there was light. Now, for the first time, astronomers have glimpsed that dawn of the universe 13.6 billion years ago when the earliest stars were turning on the light in the cosmic darkness.

And if that’s not enough, they may have detected mysterious dark matter at work, too.

The glimpse consisted of a faint radio signal from deep space, picked up by an antenna that is slightly bigger than a refrigerator and costs less than $5 million but in certain ways can go back much farther in time and distance than the celebrated, multibillion-dollar Hubble Space Telescope.

Judd Bowman of Arizona State University, lead author of a study in Wednesday’s journal Nature, said the signal came from the very first objects in the universe as it was emerging out of darkness 180 million years after the Big Bang.

Seeing the universe just lighting up, even though it was only a faint signal, is even more important than the Big Bang because “we are made of star stuff, and so we are glimpsing at our origin,” said astronomer Richard Ellis, who was not involved in the project.

The signal showed unexpectedly cold temperatures and an unusually pronounced wave. When astronomers tried to figure out why, the best explanation was that elusive dark matter may have been at work.

If verified, that would be the first confirmation of its kind of dark matter, which is a substantial part of the universe that scientists have been searching for over decades.

“If confirmed, this discovery deserves two Nobel Prizes” for both capturing the signal of the first stars and potential dark matter confirmation, said Harvard astronomer Avi Loeb, who wasn’t part of the research team. Cautioning that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” he said independent tests are needed to verify the findings.

Bowman agreed independent tests are needed even though his team spent two years double- and triple-checking their work.

“It’s a time of the universe we really don’t know anything about,” Bowman said. He said the discovery is “like the first sentence” in an early chapter of the history of the cosmos.

This is nothing that astronomers could actually see. In fact, it’s all indirect, based on changes in the wavelengths produced by radio signals.

The early universe was dark and cold, filled with just hydrogen and helium. Once stars formed, they emitted ultraviolet light into the dark areas between them. That ultraviolet light changes the energy signature of hydrogen atoms, Bowman said.

Astronomers looked at a specific wavelength. If there were stars and ultraviolet light, they would see one signature. If there were no stars, they would see another. They saw a clear but faint signal showing there were stars, probably many of them, Bowman said.

Finding that trace signal wasn’t easy because the Milky Way galaxy alone booms with radio wave noise 10,000 times louder, said Peter Kurczynski, advanced program technology director for the National Science Foundation, which helped fund the research.

“Finding the impact of the first stars in that cacophony would be like trying to hear the flap of a hummingbird’s wing from inside a hurricane,” Kurczynski said in an NSF video.

Because the high end of the frequency they were looking in is the same as FM radio, the astronomers had to go to the Australian desert to escape interference. That was where they installed their antennas.

They then labored to confirm what they found, in part by testing it against dummy signals in the lab, and it all showed that what they spotted was the existence of the first stars, Bowman said.

So far, the scientists know little about these early stars. They were probably hotter and simpler than modern stars, Ellis and Bowman said. But now that astronomers know where and how to look, others will confirm this and learn more, Bowman said.

The research does not establish exactly when these stars turned on, except that at 180 million years after the Big Bang, they were on. Scientists had come up with many different time periods for when the first stars switched on, and 180 million years fits with current theory, said Ellis, a professor at University College London.

When this signal was found and examined, it showed that the hydrogen between stars was “even colder than the coldest we thought possible,” said Rennan Barkana, a Tel Aviv University astrophysicist who wrote a companion study on the dark matter implications of the discovery. The researchers expected temperatures to be 10 degrees above absolute zero, but they were 5 degrees above absolute zero (minus 451 degrees Fahrenheit, or minus 268 degrees Celsius).

“The only thing we know from this signal is that something very weird is going on,” Barkana said.

What seems likely is dark matter — which scientists have never seen interacting with anything — may be cooling that hydrogen, he said. Dark matter makes up about 27 percent of the universe, but scientists know little about it except that it’s not made of normal matter particles called baryons.

Scientists have known dark matter exists, indirectly, through measurements based on gravity. If this interpretation of the data is correct, it would be the first confirmation of dark matter outside of gravity calculations, Barkana said.

It also potentially reveals something new about the nature of dark matter.

“If the result is correct it constitutes an indirect detection of dark matter and, moreover suggests something of fundamental importance (its interaction with baryons),” Johns Hopkins University astrophysicist Marc Kamionkowski, who wasn’t part of the study, said in an email. “This therefore is about as important as you can get in cosmology.”

Kroger Will No Longer Sell Guns to People Under 21

Kroger will stop selling firearms to people under the age of 21 at its Fred Meyer locations, becoming the latest prominent retail chain to change its rules for gun purchases following the mass shooting last month that left 17 people dead at a high school in Parkland, Florida.

Kroger said it would raise the minimum age to buy firearms and ammunition at its Fred Meyer locations that sell guns to 21 years old. Kroger acquired the Fred Meyer chain in 1999 and sells firearms at 43 of its locations in Idaho, Oregon, Washington and Alaska, the Wall Street Journal reports. Kroger stopped selling assault-style rifles at its Fred Meyer stores in Oregon, Washington and Idaho several years ago, and will stop accepting special orders of those kinds of weapons in Alaska, a spokesperson said in a statement.

“Recent events demonstrate the need for additional action on the part of responsible gun retailers,” Kroger said. “In response to the tragic events in Parkland and elsewhere, we’ve taken a hard look at our policies and procedures for firearm sales.”

With the announcement, Kroger joins Walmart, which said Wednesday that it will stop selling firearms and ammunition to people under the age of 21, and Dick’s Sporting Goods, which will stop selling assault-style rifles at all of its stores.

Americans Have Really Complicated Feelings About the Oscars This Year, According to a New Survey

When the 90th annual Academy Awards air on Sunday, March 4, audiences will find out what the nearly 7,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences think about 2017 in film. But what do average Americans make of last year at the movies?

To find out, TIME ran a survey in partnership with SurveyMonkey. We asked respondents how they felt about many aspects of the Oscars and awards season in general, including the ways in which real-world issues and offscreen behavior should or should not influence which actors and films take home awards.

As it turns out, 65% of Americans watch two or fewer Best Picture nominees each year. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have strong opinions. See their responses below, and scroll down for an explanation of SurveyMonkey’s methodology and a complete breakdown of the results.

Americans are divided on Hollywood’s treatment of social issues

Over the past several months, Hollywood has been rocked by allegations of sexual harassment and abuse, and insiders have taken action with the formation of groups like Time’s Up. More than a third of Americans believe Hollywood decision-makers haven’t taken appropriate action in responding to allegations, while half say it’s still too soon to tell. More than four out of ten Americans think the industry has paid too much attention to social movements like #MeToo and #OscarsSoWhite, while 31% would argue that too little attention has been paid.

Seventy percent of Americans don’t think the presence of a social or political message makes a film any more deserving of an award. But more of those who do think such a statement increases awards-worthiness are female (21% versus 15% of males) and nonwhite (26% versus 14% of white respondents).

Less than half of Americans believe awards shows have gotten more inclusive

Ever since the #OscarsSoWhite campaign took off in 2015 and 2016, in response to the lack of people of color among acting nominees, there has been increased scrutiny whenever nominations are announced and awards are won. Americans have mixed feelings about how much progress has been made on the diversity front, with 44% believing awards shows have become more inclusive over the past five years, 42% believing it’s remained about the same and 13% responding that awards have gotten less inclusive. Twice as many respondents who identified as nonwhite (18%) think it’s gotten less diverse, compared to white respondents (9%).

Americans are split on whether an actor’s behavior offscreen should impact awards’ prospects

Survey respondents were torn when it comes to the influence personal behavior should have on professional honors. Just over half (53%) believe behavior should be either “a great deal” or “somewhat” a part of awards criteria.

The survey also asked Americans to weigh in specifically on allegations of misconduct against The Disaster Artist director and star James Franco, who was accused of sexual misconduct days before voting closed for nominations (Franco, who denied the allegations, was not ultimately nominated), and The Darkest Hour actor Gary Oldman, whose ex-wife accused him of assault in 2001 and who has been accused of making anti-Semitic comments. The responses were split, with 47% saying the allegations should affect their chances of winning or being nominated and 51% saying they should not. When asked who should win Best Actor, Oldman won with 32% of responses.

The people have spoken, and they want Get Out to go all the way

When asked which of the nine Best Picture nominees should take home the golden statue, 18% chose Jordan Peele’s social thriller Get Out. This pick was slightly more popular with women (19%), adults between 18 and 29 (28%) and non-white Oscar watchers (29%). The Shape of Water came in a close second, with 16%, followed by Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, with 15%. Oldman and Frances McDormand (Three Billboards) were the top picks for Lead Actor and Actress, but young adults favored Get Out‘s Daniel Kaluuya and The Shape of Water star Sally Hawkins.

Methodology: This SurveyMonkey Audience survey was conducted February 13‐17, 2018 among a national sample of 1,875 adults, including 745 people likely to watch the Academy Awards this year. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly 3 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. The modeled error estimate for this survey is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over. The full breakdown by demographics is available here.

This Week's Nor'easter Will Get Stronger Thanks to 'Bombogenesis.' Here's What That Is

The pleasant weather conditions experienced in the Northeast in recent weeks will soon come to an end.

A massive storm called a nor’easter is heading to the East Coast early Friday, with promises of heavy wind, rain, snow and coastal flooding. The intense storm could rapidly develop thanks to “bombgenesis,” a similar weather phenomenon experienced by the Northeast in January when a so-called “bomb cyclone” hurled forceful winds and snow amid freezing temperatures.

The Northeast is already bracing for impact, with airlines like JetBlue, American, Deltaand Southwest warning of flight cancelations and allowing customers to rebook their flights free of charge. The National Weather Service has also warned of coastal flooding in eastern Massachusetts, and minor to moderate flooding on Long Island and coastal Connecticut.

With terms like “bombogenesis” and “nor’easter” used to described the impending storm, here’s what you need to know.

What is a ‘bombogenesis’?

A bombogenesis describes a rapidly developing storm that results from a drop in atmospheric pressure of at least 24 millibars. Such a weather pattern could occur during the storm Friday, according to The Weather Channel.

“This can happen when a cold air mass collides with a warm air mass, such as air over warm ocean waters,” the National Ocean Service says. That can then create a “bomb cyclone,” which the East Coast saw at the beginning of the year.

When bombogensis occurs, winds, rainfall and snow become stronger, and sometimes lightening can happen while it’s snowing, according to The Weather Channel. Bombogenesis often happens during a nor’easter — which also can happen as a result of differing air temperatures.

What is a ‘Nor’easter’?

Occurring on the East Coast of North America typically between September and April, nor’easter storms are called that name due to winds coming from the northeast, according to the National Weather Service.

The storms include heavy rain or snow with heavy winds and massive waves that could result in flooding along the coast. The intense storms also are fueled by differing air temperatures over land and water, with cool and warm temperatures, respectively. These storms typically occur along the coast between Washington, D.C., and Boston.

Where will this storm take place?

The storm will span the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine, with heavily populated cities like New York, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia and Boston in the storm’s path. Residents in those areas can expect heavy winds and several inches of rain. The Massachusetts coastline will likely see flooding, and coastlines along Connecticut and Long Island may experience it as well.

With Gun Sales Down, the NRA Told Republicans It's OK to Talk About Gun Control

America’s gun control debate has taken seemingly surprising turns in recent days, as President Donald Trump and other Republican Party leaders have signaled an openness to gun restrictions that are anathema to the powerful National Rifle Association. But behind the scenes, the NRA has given Republican lawmakers the green light to float new gun restrictions without the threat of political retribution, according to two senior GOP officials.

Gun manufacturers, who along with the NRA’s grassroots members help fund the organization, are in the midst of the worst business crisis in decades, with sales drops driving some to seek bankruptcy protection. And nothing gooses sales like the threat of new limits on guns.

Jennifer Baker, an NRA spokeswoman, denied that her organization made such overtures to Congress, and said the NRA’s main concern was not gun sales but rather defending gun rights.

Read more: Inside the Republican Party’s New Direction on Gun Restrictions

Under President Barack Obama, people rushed to buy guns they feared would be outlawed. But as Trump took office, the American gun market was approaching saturation. “Gun owners have what they need,” said Robert Evans of Pennington Capital, a Minneapolis investment firm. “The stockpiling mentality is over.”

Since last month’s deadly mass shooting at a high school in Parkland, Florida, left 17 people dead, Trump and some other Republicans have changed their tune on guns. Trump — who received record-breaking support from the National Rifle Association during the 2016 presidential election — told lawmakers during a live televised meeting Wednesday that they shouldn’t be afraid to defy the NRA. He encouraged them to pass a comprehensive bill that would raise the age limit for purchasing guns from 18 to 21, something the NRA has said it opposes. And he floated the prospect of taking guns away from people who might be dangerous, even before they have a chance to defend themselves in court. “Take the guns first, go through due process second,” Trump said.

Trump also told a recent meeting of governors that it’s time for them to pick a fight with the gun-rights lobby. “Half of you are so afraid of the NRA,” Trump chided. “There’s nothing to be afraid of.”

But he also let slip that he had shared a recent lunch with NRA executives.

–With reporting by Alana Abramson